Life never turn out as planned

As the above quote says, life never turn out as planned. This fall I was supposed to live a abroad and study. In this scenario my plan to follow my set portfolio would not be a problem. The life as student is free and you can place bet on any time on the day and always be available. The perfect setup for a portfolio gambler.

Instead of this life, I change my mind and went back to Sweden to start my career and got myself a job. The life of a 9 to 5 worker plus a part time job after that is not suitable at all for a portfolio gambler. This is shown in my results where I in some cases have trouble to follow my services. The bets I miss is the one with the biggests drops and also the biggest values.

This is not sustainable and I have to do a real reconstruction of the portfolio. I have already ditched one service and from december and forward I am letting go three more. The only ones left is the ones that I still can get the advised bets on and still getting value from.

It is a bit of a 80/20 thinking in my new portfolio. The high volume services gets out and my stable low key services are still in the game. I think this can be good. It’s a bit sad to escape my plan and break all my rules, but in this case I think I have no choise. My spreadsheet has been behind all autumn and I have really no time to update 600 bets per month. From now on it is going to be more like the half of that or maybe a third which is more reasonable for be to have time for.

My results has been awful the last couple of month and that is a part of this big change. Not just that I can’t handling long losing streaks, but that my services doesn’t show near as bad results as me. Most showing is N.M.P, a service that I has stopped follow for just this reason. My own results stand on a negative ROI of 12 % while the official results shows a positive ROI of 20 %. I have only missed 10 of his bets, but five of them are winners.

I am ready to get back on the horse with new power and change my bad results again. Novembers number is on their way, but I am still a lot of bet to record so it can take a week or so. Until then, may the betting gods be with you 🙂

 

 

Annonser

Monthly report Oktober

Another late report from me. So much other things that takes to much time for me to prioritize the blog. But better late than never and here it is. It feels strange to go back to these numbers again because I have already put them behind me. Oktober was a disaster in every part of my portfolio. Let us check out the numbers.

ERG 3.1

Screenshot 2017-11-19 at 10.09.12

A disaster indeed. Almost 50 000 in loss over the course of one month. There is setbacks and there is setbacks. This is one of my greatest in years with around 40 % of my starting bankroll gone.

Turnover on the month lands on 612 000 SEK slightly below last month which is a surprise for me. I thought before the month that oktober would see a higher turnover but that was not the case. One reason is that I have trouble with one of my high turnover services. They have changed the send out time to a later morning time when I’m at work. In other words, I can’t follow them on weekdays. Even at weekends I have had trouble because of the fast dropping odds. I know one of my rules before the season was not to dropp out of a service, but I don’t think I have any edge with this service this season. I am putting it at hold for the moment and see if it goes back to be easier to follow. Last season it proveded around 1000 bets at a ROI of 103 % so it is a really nice service to follow.

If we look at the graph for the month it is looking a lot like a kids slide.

Screenshot 2017-11-19 at 10.49.18

Between 2017-10-12 to 2017-10-18 I made a total loss of 57 000 SEK. That is what I call a bad weekend. Half of my starting bankroll gone in just 6 days. Thats variance at its worst!

Sports

Screenshot 2017-11-19 at 10.34.06

All the loss from the month is from the sports part of the portfolio. The biggest villain in the portfolio was Gowi that showed a loss of 25 000 SEK. Of the 90 bets I placed from him only 30 was winners. Hopefully he gets back on the winning line in november! The high turnover service that I talked about before did also have a disaster month with a loss of 18 000.

Horse racing

Screenshot 2017-11-19 at 10.38.42

A slightly losing month for my horse racing services to. A positive thing is that my change from Bet365 to the exchange has gone pretty well so far. I know I’m losing a lot of edge with the change but it seems that I still can follow in a acceptable manner. The N.M.P is harder than my other service, especially because I’m not enable to place his parlays.

Year 4

Screenshot 2017-11-19 at 10.43.13

A 3rd of my 4th year has past and after this horrifying month I’m sitting on 20K loss. Hopefully this will turn already to the new year but you’ll never know in betting. Almost 2 millions in turnover so far which is 66 % of last years turnover. In this pace I will place bets to a value of 6 millions in a year. That means that with just a ROI of 101 % makes me a 60 000 profit. But thats a long way to go for me.

 

 

Monthly report September

It has been a really long time since i updated this blog and far to many days over my deadline to write the montly report of my betting portfolio. But there is so much other things that has had a higher grade of importance for me right now. My life has changed both one and two times in just two months and it takes o lot of time to adjust to the new give.

But finally I am done with septembers numbers and can start summerize it here. It will be a short blogpost though. The long reports is more valuable for me when they are fresh and I can express my feelings and thoughts. Now when I have placed a few hundred bets more than this report shows, it’s a bit unnecessairy.

ERG 3.1

 Screenshot 2017-10-18 at 18.21.09

Almost 700 bets this month with an average betsize of 1000 SEK. My turnover is getting bigger and in oktober it will get even higher. In the end of september my last tipsters leagues started which means very high volume and many bets.

Profit for the month is 4400 SEK, not an excellent result but every month with a green result is a good month. A ROI of 100.65 % is below my goal for a entire season but nothing to worry about.

Sports

Screenshot 2017-10-18 at 18.38.51

The sports part of my portfolio is back to a winning month after a disapointing month in august. Almost 550 bets was placed with a healthy ROI of 101.7 %. A stable month in other words.

My own bets on MLB had a really bad finish to the season with a negative profit of 3000 SEK from 25 bets placed. I ended my season early because I didn’t had the time to follow as much as I wanted and therefore lost my edge. I dont think I had a marketbeat on any of my last bets which is quite telling of my bad performance. A review of my MLB season is to follow when I have the time to analyse it. Stay tuned.

Horse racing

Screenshot 2017-10-18 at 18.28.47

We are back to a bad month with the horses. The closing of my Bet365 account has hurt this part of my portfolio the hardest. Under the later part of september and forward I am trying to follow on the exchanges. It is much harder but I think it will still provide some profit over the course of a year. The swings will be higher because of the lack of win/place opportunitys. But to only back the horses to win has showed a higher expected return over the long term so hopefully I will manage some swings and get to enjoy some winnings.

A negative profit of over 6000 SEK for this month. Maybe not that big of a surprise after the superb month in august. Variance has that effect.

July – September

Screenshot 2017-10-18 at 18.56.06

The end of september also means the end of the first quarter of my betting year. After this three months I have a managed to have a total profit of 30 000 SEK. An average of 10 000 per month which is over my living costs as a student. A great result! My long term goal is to have a ROI of between 101 and 102 % which I am above right now.

In other words, the betting fund has gotten a great start!


Thats all for this month. Hopefully I have more time in the beggining of november so I can write a more up to date report and with more analyse. We’ll see.

Untile then, live well and may the sports gods be with you!

The mail that every gambler fear…

At last it has happen. I got the email that every gambler fear and that I have had nightmares about for years. I knew it was unavoidable but it is hard to take anyway.

It has been by far the best european bookie I have tested and the one that lasted the longest. But nothing last for ever and everything comes to an end. After the last couple of years I was surprised I didn’t got this mail before. Since the start of ERG 3.0 I have placed 1100+ bets on your site with a ROI of 104.75 %. Thats around ten times more than the average EU-book has given me before they sent the letter. Maybe it was stupid to start bet on horse racing with you. The last months winnings must have been hard for you to handle. But still, nothing is forever and everything got a end.

Now a new era starts.

Rest In Peace my Bet365 account.

 

Monthly report August

Finally I have some time to write again. It’s been a hectic few weeks and I have had a lot of things to take care of. Therefore this months report is slightly thinner than it use to be.

ERG 3.1

Screenshot 2017-09-02 at 23.16.51

The fall is here and we are heading against high volume months. August marks the end to the summer which is the ones with least bets for me historically. Thanks to the horse racing project, it is now a days not that low volume as it used to be. Total amount of bets for august lands on 461, which really is an ok number. Compared to last year it is nearly the double. In the next couple of month the amount of bets will be very high. I think that I’m going to break the 1k limit of bets in a month.

The results for the month lands on 10 000 SEK profit. I really nice profit for a month which is achieved with a ROI of 102,5 %.

Horse Racing

Screenshot 2017-09-02 at 23.17.08

What a fantastic month for my horse racing tipsters! This months winning makes this project breakeven since the start. I can only hope it will continue because then I have a goldmine.

I have also tried out a new horse racing tipster this month, someone I read about in Secret Betting Clubs reports. His results since the start has been incredible and almost all of my winnings is from him this month. N.M.P. did also have a winning month but only slightly.

Horse Racing excluded

Screenshot 2017-09-02 at 23.17.23

Not as good as the horse racing or at all for that matter. A loss of 10 000 SEK is not good at all. I am not stressed about it. I know it will turn later on, it’s just a part of the game with losing months on some sports.

Screenshot 2017-09-09 at 08.50.47.png

Gladly my own bets have a fantastic month. I needed this winning streak for my self esteem. MLB has been very hard to bet on this season and the results hasn’t been with me. Hopefully it’s just variance and I can finish the season in green numbers.

That was all from me for this time. Good luck with your bets!

Portfolio ERG 3.1

I am now done with my portfolio for the upcoming year. I am very excited about this year and I am more confident than I have been in a very long time. I think I have good mix of tipsters and with a great potential to beat last years result

The base of my portfolio is the same as last year, but I have added some newcomers. Roughly 60 % of my bets approxingly are going to be from old tipsters, like Gowi and NMP. This is tipsters I know exactly how I am going to follow and they will produce I nice profit for me. The other 40 % is new, but not entirely new. I have followed a lot of them earlier and have the knowledge that it takes to get a great profit from them.

Målsättning 2017

I have three categories of tipsters: Asian, lower yield and european books. Every tipster and category has its own goal which I think is very low settled.

I am counting on placing 7 500 though this season with a turnover on over 7 000 000 SEK. Thats more than twice as much than last year. My expected ROI is slightly more than I managed to have last year, but if I only stick to my rules, it shouldn’t be a problem. I am actually pretty optimistic about beating this goals. The goals of each individual tipster is settle on the low side. Like Gowi had a ROI of 105 % last year (108 % with the same filter that I am using this year), but my goal is just 102 % for this year.

The expected profit of the year is 127 600 SEK which means a ROC slightly over 100 %.

 

Betting funds

In the latest update from Sportmarket they introduced a new site that they are sponsering: winbets.se. Winbets is a betting forum like every other, in which experts can share their plays on sports. Nothing new there, but I really like the effort to try renaissance this field.

What is new and what I find very interesting is a new feature, betting funds where you can invest in a persons betting plays. For now there is only one fund up on the site which is a fund managed by Peter Hedlund and invests in swedish football.

So how do a betting fund work? 

You invest a set amount of money into the fund. The manager of the fund place bets with the total of money invested in the fund and by the end of year (or other time period) the investors gets their share of the winnings. For the service the manager takes a percentish of the winnings. In other words, it works exactly like a hedge fund with on commission.

I have waited for this things to really take of. First there was smartbet bot which has a bit left to really work perfectly. Now this idea!

Why is this the future?

I can see a lot of advantages with this kind of set up:

  1. Every investor gets the same odds as the manager. If you invest you’ll never be worried of odds drop and such things as everybody gets the same odds.
  2. Fully transparent. A manager can not lie about his results with bets from obscure eu-books and such. Every bet is placed with Sportmarket!
  3. No work for the investors. After the investment is set, you can just lay back and follow the experts tips automatically.

My biggest issues with following tipsters is: Odds drop, bets in irregular times and small markets. This could all be fixed with this kind of fund. This is a win-win situation for the managers and the investors. Hopefully there will be a lot more of this funds on the site soon because I om very keen on trying it out. I think I have a lot of readers that should be interested in having his own fund and that I would been interested in investing in. So hopefully some of you will try it!

Problems

But everything isn’t just great about this idea. One thing that is most certainly be a problem is overinvesting. If there is a fund that is very good and place bets in small markets, lets say swedish ice hockey, it will get to big to get any return for the individual investor. To fix this there must be limitation in every investors buy in which can be really small.

Despite this I really think this is a interesting feature and I will follow it in the near future.

What do you think about the idea? Can it work?