Time to summary my third year in portfolio gambling on this blog. When I started out last summer with this third year, I had two losing years behind me. Bad discipline, too many services in my portfolio and hubris with my stakes was the main reasons to the bad performance. Therefore, when I started out for my third year here at the blog my focus was to slim my portfolio to only the best, maintain my strategy for the whole season and not get hubris and higher my stakes under the season.
I only manage to do one of this things actually, but I didn’t leave the others as much as I have in previous years. The only task I did manage to maintain for the whole season was to keep my portfolio slim. I started out with four services and ended with six. In comparison with last year when I had the dubble I am very pleased with all of the services I have been following this year.
In order to maintain my strategy you can argue for that I manage to do it in some ways. I followed my four start services for the whole seasons and didn’t drop out on any under on going season. This was something I have done in previous years with for example Daily Profit and Georges Dempsey. Good scouting and knowing everything there is to know about the services are important keys to a good portfolio gambling.
In other ways I didn’t manage to keep my strategy. Under the season I have tried out a number of new services, services that I didn’t had enough knowledge to follow yet and the result was of course red on this ones. A good example on this is the horse racing services that I have tried out on the last two month. I was clearly not ready to start to follow a whole new sport and now I have paid alot for that mistake. 20 000 to be exactly.
About the stakes, I didn’t kept my flat bet under the entire year. After the new year I raised my betsize from 500 to 600. But it wasn’t about hubris though (maybe a little), it was mainly so I could start betting with Sportmarket Pro. Under the spring I raised my stakes again on my EU book services to 1000. This was a rational decision but it was against my strategy.
All about that. Now over to what most of you are here to read about: the numbers.
I placed 5424 bets under the year. Thats a lot of bets and much more than I did last season (2784 in ERG 2.0, plus a lot of small bets in my volume fonds). Even if I have placed a record of bets this season I have spend a lot less time to follow the services. All the tipsters I follow is really easy to follow with set times or easy to get odds.
The turnover just got over the three million line under the last day of betting. Three million SEK is really a lot of money if you put it in perspective. But in the gambling world it is nothing special and I hope to get a higher turnover in upcoming years. The revenue lands on 42 000 SEK which gives me ROC of 84 %. I’m a bit disappointed that I dropped under 100 % under the last two month. But 84 % return in one year is an incredible result. I am more than happy to show this kind of numbers and really hope my next year can be at least as good.
My yield lands on 101.4 % which is in the middle region of my long term goal on 101-102 %. It was a decent year in other words. Isn’t it amazing that you can make a 84 % ROC with just 101.4 % in yield? Most people are looking to have about 110 % yield and are not happy if they don’t get it. I am more than happy with my ROI and if I can keep it like this forever I’m going to be a rich man.
In this chapter I will go on a more detailed review of each tipster I follow. As I wrote before I started out with 4 services and all of them is getting a small review. I will also let you through the numbers of my own betting and my experiments with new services.
Club Gowi is my cornerstone in the portfolio. I think it is an incredable service with good results, easy to follow odds in asia and with set time for the emails. The results over the year is as follows.
747 bets and a yielding 105 % plus. Just amazing really. As I have wrote a lot of times before I have a filter of which bets I place with the service. He isn’t as great in all sports or countrys, but if you are selective there is a lot of money to make. If you look on the whole service it isn’t as great as my results (The picture to the left). I have had some problem to stick to my filter in low key days. If I had followed my filter strictly I have had a much better results (picture to the right).
A lot more bets and a lot lower yield. You can easily se that there is a 80/20 distribution or more like a 99/40 where 99 % of the winnings come from 40 % of the bets. I lower my workload and still gets all of the winnings.
This is a contact that I have followed for years on the EU markets. He has been incredable over several years and made me a ton of money. He is by far the tipster that I made most money of over the years. This years results is no different:
Exactly as many bets as Gowi but I slightly better yield make him the king tipster of the year. But in comparison to Gowi this tipster places all his bets in EU which make it a unfair matchup. But 106 % yield and a revenue of 26 000 and I am more than happy to follow this service as long as my accounts are open.
Just like in the case with Gowi I have a filter on this service. And just as with Gowi I didn’t manage to follow it so strictly as I should.
As you can se I could have made more money on half of the bets if I only had followed my rules. Next season I will definitly only place the bets in my filter. It gets so clear when you make this summaries of your betting. What you are good at, what you can improve. I really urge you all to do this with your own betting. Maybe blogging about it isn’t for all, but do it for yourself. It will improve your gambling!
Tipster 1 Asia
This is my second year with this service. It is a service were all bets are placed in asia but in small markets. Sometimes as small as just 100 €. Therefore I keep it to my self and not expose it here on the blog. It would be the dead for myself to follow it.
A bit over 1000 bets and a ROI for me at 103.2 %, all placed on asian bookies. A really good service in other words. With my stakes it is still easy to get my bets on for now and for a long time to come. A profit of 20 000 is more than enough especially as it is a free tipster. Set times to take the bets make it easy for me to follow. The only bad thing about the service is the odds availability. It is a struggle every day to get the best odds and if you are a minute late you are out of the game. As long as I am one of the fastest it will be a top service for me.
Tipster 2 Asia
Tipster 2 is a tipster that mainly place his bets in asia. It is easy to follow in many ways, like the odds don’t drop and it is on big markets.
Not as good yield as the other ones but it is enough for me to follow. High volume is my favorite style and I really like it. 15 000 SEK in profit is really good over the season in my opinio and it is very scaleable with the large markets.
I don’t know yet if I’m going to follow this service when the new season starts yet. Not because it’s a bad service or something like that. It more a issue of time, because I think the time differens in my new land are going to be a problem. Most of this picks would arrive in my inbox in the middle of the night which I’m not that interested in. I will think about it a bit more but it leans to that I drop this service in ERG 3.1.
What about my own bets? I have experimented with both football and my beloved baseball over the year with mixed results.
604 bets have I managed to place over the year. The result is a bit dissapointing with a negative result and a loss of 3000 SEK. Not that turn-out that I was hoping for but still not a totally surprice either. I’m still in a learning process in my own gambling and I think (and hope) that I will develop more skills if I decide to continue.
I am not sure if I’m going to continue though. My own capping take more than the double time than my portfolio does and I have nothing to show for it. I still think it is fun to follow a sport and bet on it, but it is not economical for me to do it. I will continue untile further notice but maybe I will drop it later this autumn.
That was all the services I planned to follow under the year. If I had stuck to this I would have had a profit of 80 000 for the year. If I only had followed this services AND the filters that I put up for them I have had a profit of 93 500. To bad for me I didn’t had the character to do so and therefore we are now going over to the experiment and new services that I tried out under the season.
Le Grand Foot
This is a service that came for free with the Club Gowi service. I decided before the season to not start following it because it didn’t had any public track record. But after a good run over the autumn the fear of missing out hit me and after new year I started to follow the service. And you can guess what happend. The spring was so red that the communists looks blue.
A misstake that cost me around 9000 SEK. The service is taken away from the Club Gowi package to next season and I will not pay 300 € to continue following it.
To start betting on horses are the dumbest and funniest thing I have done over the entire betting year, maybe in my whole career. The results has been really bad, but the excitment is almost worth it. It was a big mistake to take in a service like Sure Shot because it is really hard to follow. I lost a ton of money in the few weeks I tried to follow it. After my trial period I switched to Northern Monkey Punter. A much easier service to follow with fewer bets and easy to get odds.
Even if the results are this bad I really think this can be my best sport when i summaries ERG 3.1. N.M.P has a long term ROI on 110 % and that is with odds easy to replicate or even beat. I am looking forward to the following month and expect to make a great profit from this service.
Other than this I also tried a few bets on several other services with really bad results. After a few losses I read my old reports here on the blog and reminded myself why I shouldn’t jump on tipsters in the middle of there seasons. A loss of around 10 000 was the results on this badly decisions from me.
EU versus Asia
I have, over the year, placed bets both in Asia and EU. Long term I know I am going to lose my accounts in EU, but as long as they’re open I will continue to use them to boost my profits. As long as I know that I’m also profitable in asia I can continue with this strategy.
Lets start with the EU results.
Not as great yield as you would had thought right? But this numbers is strongly affected of the horse racing betting. To get a fair view of my EU betting we have to sort out the horse racing bets.
Thats more like it. A great profit and yield on few bets. If I had used the 80/20 principle on my betting I would have only placed this bets. But I know this is only for a limited time and I must keep on my strategy to make in Asia.
Not as good results as with the EU bookies of course. Almost 90 % of my bets are placed in asia, which is good for the future, but only 60 % of my winnings. The yield is significant lower and I am almost under my long term goal at 101-102 %. Under the spring when I switched to Sportmarket from just using Pinnacle I got a higher yield so I hope I can continue on that path over autumn.
It has been a great betting year for me and I am very satisfied with my results. But, it could have been a even greater year if I just had stuck to my plan. In ERG 3.1 all of my mistakes I have done through the years will be long gone. Rules are made to be followed, not broken. I will write a post about my strategies for ERG 3.1 someday this month I think.
We finishes this marathon blogpost with my statistics summarised: