Another late report from me. So much other things that takes to much time for me to prioritize the blog. But better late than never and here it is. It feels strange to go back to these numbers again because I have already put them behind me. Oktober was a disaster in every part of my portfolio. Let us check out the numbers.
A disaster indeed. Almost 50 000 in loss over the course of one month. There is setbacks and there is setbacks. This is one of my greatest in years with around 40 % of my starting bankroll gone.
Turnover on the month lands on 612 000 SEK slightly below last month which is a surprise for me. I thought before the month that oktober would see a higher turnover but that was not the case. One reason is that I have trouble with one of my high turnover services. They have changed the send out time to a later morning time when I’m at work. In other words, I can’t follow them on weekdays. Even at weekends I have had trouble because of the fast dropping odds. I know one of my rules before the season was not to dropp out of a service, but I don’t think I have any edge with this service this season. I am putting it at hold for the moment and see if it goes back to be easier to follow. Last season it proveded around 1000 bets at a ROI of 103 % so it is a really nice service to follow.
If we look at the graph for the month it is looking a lot like a kids slide.
Between 2017-10-12 to 2017-10-18 I made a total loss of 57 000 SEK. That is what I call a bad weekend. Half of my starting bankroll gone in just 6 days. Thats variance at its worst!
All the loss from the month is from the sports part of the portfolio. The biggest villain in the portfolio was Gowi that showed a loss of 25 000 SEK. Of the 90 bets I placed from him only 30 was winners. Hopefully he gets back on the winning line in november! The high turnover service that I talked about before did also have a disaster month with a loss of 18 000.
A slightly losing month for my horse racing services to. A positive thing is that my change from Bet365 to the exchange has gone pretty well so far. I know I’m losing a lot of edge with the change but it seems that I still can follow in a acceptable manner. The N.M.P is harder than my other service, especially because I’m not enable to place his parlays.
A 3rd of my 4th year has past and after this horrifying month I’m sitting on 20K loss. Hopefully this will turn already to the new year but you’ll never know in betting. Almost 2 millions in turnover so far which is 66 % of last years turnover. In this pace I will place bets to a value of 6 millions in a year. That means that with just a ROI of 101 % makes me a 60 000 profit. But thats a long way to go for me.
In the latest update from Sportmarket they introduced a new site that they are sponsering: winbets.se. Winbets is a betting forum like every other, in which experts can share their plays on sports. Nothing new there, but I really like the effort to try renaissance this field.
What is new and what I find very interesting is a new feature, betting funds where you can invest in a persons betting plays. For now there is only one fund up on the site which is a fund managed by Peter Hedlund and invests in swedish football.
So how do a betting fund work?
You invest a set amount of money into the fund. The manager of the fund place bets with the total of money invested in the fund and by the end of year (or other time period) the investors gets their share of the winnings. For the service the manager takes a percentish of the winnings. In other words, it works exactly like a hedge fund with on commission.
I have waited for this things to really take of. First there was smartbet bot which has a bit left to really work perfectly. Now this idea!
Why is this the future?
I can see a lot of advantages with this kind of set up:
- Every investor gets the same odds as the manager. If you invest you’ll never be worried of odds drop and such things as everybody gets the same odds.
- Fully transparent. A manager can not lie about his results with bets from obscure eu-books and such. Every bet is placed with Sportmarket!
- No work for the investors. After the investment is set, you can just lay back and follow the experts tips automatically.
My biggest issues with following tipsters is: Odds drop, bets in irregular times and small markets. This could all be fixed with this kind of fund. This is a win-win situation for the managers and the investors. Hopefully there will be a lot more of this funds on the site soon because I om very keen on trying it out. I think I have a lot of readers that should be interested in having his own fund and that I would been interested in investing in. So hopefully some of you will try it!
But everything isn’t just great about this idea. One thing that is most certainly be a problem is overinvesting. If there is a fund that is very good and place bets in small markets, lets say swedish ice hockey, it will get to big to get any return for the individual investor. To fix this there must be limitation in every investors buy in which can be really small.
Despite this I really think this is a interesting feature and I will follow it in the near future.
What do you think about the idea? Can it work?
It’s a new month again and that means it’s time to look back on the numbers of the previous month. July was the first month in my 4th year betting and it was a really great start. I have leveled up my stakes and have a maximum bet on 1 500 SEK this season. This means the swings are much higher, in absolute numbers counted, which means it take more of me as a bettor to just ride the strikes out. Hopefully all month will be as smooth like this month. Then it’s going to be a easy ride to success. But like we all know, betting is not a smooth ride and long losing strikes will appear. But lets enjoy months like this, because this is what makes betting just the greatest hobby there is.
BOOM! Or what else can I say? A really great start to the fund with the highest return since the blog started, I suppose.
I placed 288 bets in July with a quarter of a million in turnover. A lot more in turnover than previous month which can be traced back to the higher stakes. 288 bets is very good in the low key summer months. ROI for the month was 106.14 % which is well over what I expect long term.
My horse racing project has been my biggest concern under the last few month. And my concern continues this month. 127 bets placed on horses and another losing month. Not as big as the last two but still a losing month. I have a unit size of 600 on N.M.P which means 1.5 units back. The official stats for the service was minus 10 units. This shows how easy the service is to follow and how generous his odds policy is. Despite this generous odds policy, he shows a long term ROI of 108 %. If he hasn’t lost his mojo, this is truly going to be the best service that I have ever followed.
The other tipsters that I followed this month generated a ROI on 108 % with an average odds on 2.16 and 52 % win rate. Stable!
My own bets on MLB showed profit for the first month this season. Hopefully I can build on this and make more money in August. Low turnover because of the All-star break.
As I have wrote before, I’m looking for few new services too follow. But there is not much that fits my profil. Easy to follow, set sending times and a high ROI is not something you find easily. The hunt continues! I have followed the big debate about Marketbeaters from the sideline as I don’t have the service myself. I wrote about them in a review (in swedish) in this post and most of it is still valid. They are a service for a betting beginner that spend alot of time in front of a computer. If you want a service that performs on the asian market, this is probably not the service for you.
Well I end my report here. July was a great month in terms of betting and I am really excited about the upcoming football season. It’s going to be really fun to have 20+ bets on a suturday afternoon to follow again, with some horse racing and other sports to complement the football.